NFL Week 2 Best Bets: Dogs, Parlays, and One Big Blowout

Breaking Balls Sports
Sep 11
5 min read

Updated: Sep 12

Deshaun Watson, #12 Cleveland Browns jersey

Week 1 is in the books. Time to react — and make some money.

After a chaotic opening weekend (shoutout to everyone who bet on the Bears... yikes), Week 2 is where lines start to adjust — but not fast enough. We’re eyeing value, overreactions, and one game that’s begging for a blowout. Let’s ride:

Tennessee Titans +5.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Pick: Titans +5.5

The Read: This line is pure Week 1 overreaction.

The Rams beat up on a Houston team with a paper-thin O-line, and now they’re laying nearly a touchdown against a Titans squad that showed real grit in Denver? Nah

Here’s the case:

Cam Ward held his own in a brutal debut spot at Mile High. He faced an elite defense, took the hits, and still kept it within a score. That’s a valuable first start, and he’ll look a lot more comfortable this week with game film under his belt.
Titans penalty yardage (131!) was ugly, but fixable. Week 1 sloppiness is common, and Brian Callahan should get that cleaned up fast.
The chemistry is coming. Ward missed some throws, but it wasn’t a disaster. The timing with his receivers should tighten up with real reps and less altitude.
Stafford didn’t look right. The back issue is real, and he’s never been great outdoors (32-40 record lifetime). He looked slow in his reads and movement.
Let’s chill on the Rams hype. They beat the Texans. At home. That’s not a resume builder. The Texans are dealing with a porous offensive line that could make for a long season, and beating a struggling Houston team at home isn't the statement win it appears to be on paper.

Bottom line: Titans are a scrappy, with a mobile QB that had a solid week 1 considering the circumstances — and we’re getting nearly a touchdown against an aging QB outdoors. I’ll take the points.

Seattle Seahawks +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pick: Seahawks +3

The Read: Don’t let the Steelers’ scoreboard fool you — they didn’t move the ball, they just got lucky.

Here’s the case:

Pittsburgh dropped 34 points in Week 1… on just 271 total yards. That’s not efficient offense — that’s field position luck and a busted game script. Using standard metrics, that yardage should’ve translated to around 17 points. Regression incoming.
Short field and a 50-yard field goal inflated the final. They got a gift turnover on the Jets 20 and a long make — neither is bankable week to week. Strip those out, and the offense was… mid at best.
Seattle’s defense didn’t fold against San Francisco. The 49ers have a good offense, and while the final was a Seattle loss, the Seahawks held their own for long stretches. This isn’t a defense that’ll get walked over by a Steelers team struggling to sustain drives.
Sam Darnold is still ramping up, but the upside is there. Week 1 was about survival. Week 2 is where timing, rhythm, and reads improve — especially with a full week of tape to correct.
Low total = high value on the dog. The over/under is sitting at 39.5, which means every possession (and every point) matters more. Getting +3 in a game that likely lands within a field goal is massive.

Bottom line: Pittsburgh’s Week 1 line is fool’s gold. The offense didn’t do much, and Seattle is being undervalued after a tough draw against the Niners. With a tight total and inflated perception, this is a spot to back the dog.

New England Patriots +1.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

The Pick: Patriots +1.5

The Read: This isn’t about loving the Pats — it’s about fading a Dolphins team that looks like it’s falling apart in real time.

Here’s the case:

Miami looked cooked in Week 1 — mentally and physically. Sideline body language was brutal. Guys already look like they’ve checked out on McDaniel, and when that happens, things go downhill fast in the NFL.
The Dolphins aren’t just struggling — they’re spiraling. Between poor play, locker room disconnect, and off-field noise, this has all the signs of a team in early-season freefall.
Meanwhile, you’ve got Mike Vrabel on the other sideline. Say what you want about the Pats’ roster, but Vrabel’s teams always respond. He adjusts, he simplifies, and he gets his guys to play above their talent.
Coaching matters more in the division. These teams know each other. When it comes down to game plan execution and exploiting tendencies, give me the staff with its act together — and that’s not Miami’s right now.
Week 2 bounce-back is real. Well-coached teams make their biggest jump between Weeks 1 and 2. The Patriots will be sharper, more disciplined, and ready to capitalize on the Dolphins’ dysfunction.

Bottom line: One team is coached by a proven leader. The other looks like it’s one loss away from a midseason collapse. You’re giving me points with Vrabel? Easy call.

Baltimore Ravens -11.5 vs. Cleveland Browns

The Pick: Ravens -10.5

The Read: Laying double digits isn’t ideal — unless one team’s built to dominate and the other is starting a guy who should be holding a clipboard. This one could get out of hand fast.

Here’s the case:

Joe Flacco can’t keep pace. He looked passable last week, but matching Lamar score-for-score for four quarters? Not happening. This will turn into a track meet, and Flacco’s showing up in loafers.
Cleveland’s Week 1 looked better than it was. They beat up a broken Bengals team with no offensive line and zero rhythm. Congrats, but that tells us more about Cincinnati falling apart than anything promising from the Browns.
Lamar just cooked one of the better defenses in the league. He dropped 40 on the Bills in Buffalo. Yes they blew a 14 point lead with 4 minutes, but we're talking Josh Allen opposed to Joe Flacco .
This is a must-win spot. The Ravens already dropped one. Starting 0–2 in the AFC North is a fast track to losing the division. Expect urgency from the jump.
If the full game number makes you nervous... Take Ravens -6.5 in the first half. They tend to punch teams in the mouth early and cruise late. Either way, expect separation early and often.
Talent gap is real. The Ravens have elite playmakers at almost every position. The Browns have a bridge QB and a locker room that's a Sheuder Sanders mixtape away from unraveling.