AFC 2026: Division Winners, Bold Predictions, Full Standings

Six teams changed head coaches this offseason.

Two former MVPs are rehabbing injuries.

Three of the four divisions are genuine toss-ups.

Here's my read on all four, plus the bold call for each.

🗽 AFC EAST:

New England is the reigning division champ and AFC runner-up. Drake Maye broke out. They went and got him A.J. Brown, too, moving on from Diggs to do it.

Should be scary. Right?

Buffalo's still the betting favorite anyway. McDermott's out after seven straight 10-win seasons. Joe Brady, his own OC, is taking over. Most of the roster stays. Josh Allen stays.

Miami is starting from scratch. New coach, new GM, no Tua, no Hill, no Waddle. Malik Willis is walking into a tough schedule with a roster that's mid-rebuild.

The Jets are the Jets, went and got Geno Smith. That's nothing to write home about.

Bold prediction: Bills win the division. Patriots stink. Miss the playoffs.

I know. Hear me out.

That 14-3 record last year came on one of the easiest schedules in the league. It doesn't this year. And sophomore slumps are real, ask Lamar Jackson, who went from Offensive Rookie of the Year to six touchdowns and seven picks in year two. Defensive coordinators have had a full offseason with tape on Maye now. When the big plays dry up, and they will, this offense doesn't have the depth to survive the adjustment.

🧊 AFC North

Every team but Cincinnati has a new head coach. Harbaugh's gone in Baltimore after 18 years. Stefanski's gone in Cleveland. Tomlin's gone in Pittsburgh.

That's a lot of turnover for a division that's supposed to be the toughest in football.

• Ravens: Lost defensive starters, added Trey Hendrickson. Lamar's health is the whole season.

• Bengals: Went all in on the defensive line, traded for Dexter Lawrence, added Jonathan Allen, finally giving a healthy Burrow some help.

• Steelers: Running it back with Rodgers. Added weapons. Last ride, allegedly.

• Browns: Traded Myles Garrett in June. This is a full teardown under Todd Monken.

Bold prediction: Bengals win the division.

A healthy Burrow changes everything. Pair that with a defense that's actually been rebuilt on purpose this time, not just patched, and Cincinnati has the best combination of talent and motivation in the North. The other three are all trusting brand-new coaches to hit the ground running. Cincinnati isn't.

🌶️ AFC South

Jacksonville's the defending champ. Thirteen wins under Liam Coen in year one. That's not a fluke, that's a Coach of the Year finalist building something real.

Houston's not far behind. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter make up the most disruptive front seven nobody outside Houston wants to talk about. Derek Stingley Jr. anchors a secondary that doesn't get talked about enough. The O-line is still the question.

Indianapolis is all in on Daniel Jones staying healthy after last year's Achilles tear, and a full season of Sauce Gardner in the secondary. Tennessee's building the whole operation around Cam Ward, with Saleh and Daboll now running the show.

Bold prediction: Texans win the division. And the AFC.

I know. Hear me out.

Stroud was bad in the playoffs last year. No sugarcoating that. But he's 24. Bad playoff games happen to great quarterbacks, Mahomes had one, Lamar had one. What matters is what comes next. And this defense travels. Defense always travels in January. When you bring a generational defense into the playoffs, nobody's going to want to see them.

⛰️ AFC West

Health decides this whole division.

Mahomes is back from a season-ending knee injury. If he's full-go Week 1, Kansas City's the favorite again, full stop. But the secondary took a real hit, the Chiefs traded away All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie to the Rams this offseason, leaving a young, largely unproven group in the secondary. Nix is back from a broken ankle for Denver, and the Broncos went and got him a top route runner in the league in Jaylen Waddle.

The Chargers still haven't broken through in the playoffs despite back-to-back 11-6 seasons under Harbaugh. The Raiders drafted Fernando Mendoza but plan on starting Kirk Cousins.

Bold prediction: Broncos win the division.

Denver won a ton of close games a year ago and mostly kept the band together, then added a star receiver for Nix. Kansas City's whole season is a bet on a knee with a weakened defense. I'd rather bet on the team that isn't betting on anything.

⭐ Standings Predictions

AFC East

1. Buffalo Bills

2. New England Patriots

3. New York Jets

4. Miami Dolphins

AFC North

1. Cincinnati Bengals

2. Baltimore Ravens

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Cleveland Browns

AFC South

1. Houston Texans

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

3. Indianapolis Colts

4. Tennessee Titans

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos

2. Los Angeles Chargers

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Las Vegas Raiders

AFC Wild Cards

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

2. Los Angeles Chargers

3. Baltimore Ravens

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