2026 NFL Predictions: Super Bowl Pick, Teams To Buy, Sleepers, and MVP

The NFL is finally back (well almost).

Every Summer we convince ourselves we know who's good.

Every January we're reminded we had no idea.

Here are my biggest takes ahead of the 2026 season.

🏆 Super Bowl Pick:

Houston Texans (2025 Record: 12-5)

I know. Hear me out.

This defense is historically good. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are the most disruptive front seven in the league. Derek Stingley Jr. is the best lockdown corner nobody is talking about outside of Houston.

Defense travels in the playoffs. Always has.

Now the elephant in the room...CJ Stroud was awful in the playoffs last year. No sugarcoating it.

But he's 23 years old. Bad playoff games happen to great quarterbacks. Mahomes had one. Lamar had one. The difference is what they do next.

I'm expecting a bounce back. And when January comes, nobody is going to want to see this team.

Houston is my pick (if you were expecting a chalky pick you're on the wrong page).

📈 Teams I'm Buying:

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

This team is being slept on and I don't understand why.

Two of the best tackles in football in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt missed significant time last year. People forget how much that matters. Football games are won in the trenches. Nobody talks about the Eagles' offensive line from 2024, they just talk about Saquon and the defense. But that line is why they won a Super Bowl.

When Slater and Alt are healthy, this Chargers offense is a different animal. Justin Herbert finally has the protection he deserves. And with Omarion Hampton entering his second year, I expect a big leap from a backfield that can take pressure off Herbert and open up the whole offense.

The only reason I'm not picking the Chargers to come out of the AFC is the receiver room, thin and unproven, and a defense I'm not fully sold on yet

Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

Nobody talks about Jacksonville enough and I'm tired of it.

Last year Trevor Lawrence had the best season of his career under first year head coach Liam Coen. 4,007 yards. 29 touchdowns. A career high 9 rushing scores. Coen was a Coach of the Year finalist in year one.

The defense backed him up. Fourth in EPA per play. Fourth in PFF coverage grade. 41 sacks. Travis Hunter, Josh Hines-Allen, and Travon Walker completely revamped their defense.

They lost to Buffalo in the playoffs because Allen put on his cape. It stung. But this team is only getting better.

Jacksonville is a team I'm buying in 2026. Don't sleep on them.

❌ Who’s Getting Exposed

New England Patriots (2025 Record: 14-3)

Let me be clear: I'm not saying the Patriots are bad. I'm saying the league is catching up.

Drake Maye had a historic rookie season. But sophomore slumps are real. Lamar went from Offensive Rookie of the Year to 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in year two. In 2021 Mac Jones passer rating fall from 92.5 to 84.8 in 2022. The NFL has tape on Maye now and defensive coordinators have spent an entire offseason scheming against him.

This offense is also dangerously big play dependent. When those plays aren't there, and teams will make sure they aren't, AJ Brown is going to be reading books on the sideline. Look at what happened to the Chiefs offense the past few years. The league figured it out and Kansas City had to completely reinvent how they scored.

New England doesn't have that same depth to survive the adjustment.

First round exit. Book it.

Chicago Bears (2025 Record: 2-3)

The highlight reel on Caleb Williams looks incredible. The tape on social media is electric. The arm talent is undeniable.

But I'm not sold.

Last season Williams completed just 58.1% of his passes, the second lowest completion rate among qualified quarterbacks. His own head coach set a benchmark of 70% and publicly admitted they weren't hitting it. His accuracy score ranked 40th out of 44 quarterbacks. 40th.

The big plays are real. But so is the inaccuracy. And in the playoffs, when defenses are dialed in and margin for error disappears, that inaccuracy is going to be exposed.

😴 Sleepers

New York Giants (2025 Record: 4-13)

Four wins last year. Four. This roster does not scream four wins.

Look at the division first. The Cowboys still can't build a defense (even though I like Caleb Downs). The Eagles just lost their top receiver. The Commanders are the Commanders. The NFC East is wide open.

John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in football. Dart and Skattebo are coming back healthy. And that front seven is legitimately scary.

Brian Burns - 16.5 sacks last year, second in the NFL. Abdul Carter - 72 QB pressures as a rookie including a league best 48 quick pressures. Thibodeaux, Arvell Reese, and Tremaine Edmunds behind them.

Burns called it "organized chaos." He's not wrong.

Four wins was rock bottom. The Giants are my sleeper in 2026 to make run.

Carolina Panthers (2025 Record: 8-9)

Did everyone forget they almost beat the Rams in the playoffs?

Carolina went 8-9 last year, won the NFC South, and took Los Angeles to the wire in the Wild Card. Nobody is talking about this team and I don't understand it.

Bryce Young is taking real steps forward. He had 20 touchdowns over the final 10 games of the regular season including 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three. The kid figured something out and now he has Tetairoa McMillan — and I'm calling it now, McMillan makes a superstar leap this year. The size, the hands, the chemistry with Young is already there in year two.

The defense might be the most underrated unit in the NFC. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson form a legitimate lockdown cornerback duo, Jackson, who logged 19 passes defensed last year. Add Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd as free agent additions to an already disruptive front and this defense is going to cause problems all season.

Nobody is talking about Carolina. That's exactly why I am.

⭐ MVP

Josh Allen (+550)

I said I wasn't going to be chalky. But I'm also a realist.

Josh Allen has no one around him. The Bills have been gutted at the skill positions for years and somehow he keeps dragging this team into the playoffs on sheer will. Every year you wonder how far one man can carry a franchise and every year he finds a new answer.

The Bills are winning the AFC East. And when they do, Allen's fingerprints will be all over it.

There's a version of this season where Allen throws for 4,500 yards, rushes for 600 more, accounts for 45 touchdowns, and people still underrate what he's doing because Buffalo doesn't have the glamour of other contenders.

He doesn't need glamour. He needs the ball and a chance.

Chalky pick? Maybe. But the most valuable player in the NFL is the one who makes everyone around him better than they have any right to be.

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