NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Bounce Backs, Short Favorites, and a Matchup Nightmare

Breaking Balls Sports
Sep 26
3 min read

Deshaun Watson, #12 Cleveland Browns jersey

Week 4 is here, and we’ve finally got some reads we trust. The lines are still catching up to who’s real and who’s not, which means there’s money to be made if you’re paying attention. A short favorites we like, a couple teams ready to bounce back — let’s get into it.

Falcons -1.5 vs. Commanders

The Pick: Falcons -1.5

The Read: Atlanta looked lifeless last week — and that’s exactly why we’re buying them now.

Teams that get embarrassed often bounce back, especially at home. Washington is banged up across the board and hasn’t looked right since their fluky Week 1 win.

Here’s the case:

Line Value: Public overreacting to last week. Atlanta was -3.5 on lookahead. Now -1.5? Huge swing for one bad game.
Injury Edge: Commanders dealing with key injuries to Daniels, McLaurin, multiple DBs, and O-line starters.
Home Boost: Falcons are a different team indoors. Penix plays cleaner, and the defense brings more juice.
Coaching Mismatch: Raheem Morris is quietly one of the most prepared game planners in the league.

Bottom line: Buy low on Atlanta, fade a Commanders team already running on fumes. This line should be -3. Bet the correction.

Vikings -2.5 vs. Steelers

The Pick: Vikings -2.5

The Read: Flores vs. an immobile Rodgers? Sign me up.

Minnesota’s defense is built on disguises and pressure. Rodgers looks like a statue behind a broken O-line, and this is a brutal spot to survive.

Here’s the case:

Pressure Stats: Against pressure this year, Rodgers is 6 of 22 with 3 interceptions — worst efficiency in the NFL.
Steelers OL: Can’t block a soul. One of the lowest pass block win rates in football.
Flores Factor: Blitz-heavy scheme confuses young QBs and limits quick reads.
Run Game: Steelers can’t run the ball, so Rodgers will be in obvious passing downs all game.
Narrative angle: Everyone’s still scared of Rodgers — but he’s not in New York anymore. Flores is going to eat this matchup alive.

Bottom line: Minnesota should control the game script and win comfortably. You’re getting the better side under a field goal.

Patriots -5.5 vs. Panthers

The Pick: Patriots -5.5

The Read: This is a classic Vrabel bounce-back spot — and Carolina can’t pressure anyone.

New England moved the ball with ease last week despite five (!) turnovers. If they clean up even a little, this should be a comfortable win.

Here’s the case:

Turnover Regression: Pats had 5 turnovers last week, with two on the goaline and still racked up 369 yards (24 expected points).
Christian Gonzalez Return: Their best cover corner is expected back, tightening up a secondary that got stretched late.
Carolina Front: Ranks 28th in pressure rate — the Pats’ biggest weakness (pass protection) won’t be exposed here.

Bottom line: The Patriots are better at every level. Carolina’s offense is not good, and if New England avoids gifting points, they cover easily.

Raiders -1.5 vs. Bears

The Pick: Raiders -1.5

The Read: This is a “don’t overthink it” game — Chicago is a disaster, and the Raiders have the better QB, better weapons, and a defense that should actually show up.

Caleb Williams isn’t ready for a real pass rush, and Geno’s been heating up.

Here’s the case:

Chicago’s Defense: Can’t stop the run, can’t generate pressure, and still blowing coverages left and right.
Geno Smith: Quietly pushing the ball downfield again — this is the matchup where he can finally explode.
Caleb Williams Fade: Looked decent last week… but it was against backups with time to throw. Not happening again.
Motivation Angle: Raiders want to erase last week’s ugly finish — this is a perfect rebound spot.